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Flyers vs. Red Wings Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tonight's NHL Game

Last Updated: December 18, 2024 2:22 PM EST • 3 min 1 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

The Philadelphia Flyers have righted themselves after a rough first month of the season. They now boast the sixth-best road points percentage (.750) since Nov. 6.

Now they'll take on a Detroit Red Wings squad with the seventh-worst home percentage, and the game will be held at Little Caesars Arena on Wednesday (7 p.m. ET, TNT).

Neither squad is a factor in the  Stanley Cup odds , but the Flyers are in contention for the second wild-card spot.

Our Flyers vs. Red Wings prediction focuses on  Calder Trophy odds  front-runner Matvei Michkov.  

Today's Flyers vs. Red Wings prediction

Odds via our best  NHL betting sites ; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

My best pick: Matvei Michkov Over 2.5 shots ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: +130 via Betway | Implied probability: 43.48%

Terms and conditions apply.

Michkov is playing like a seasoned first-line veteran, especially since being benched by John Tortorella at the start of November. He didn't score a point in the last two but amassed 10 points in the previous five.

His point total, set at 0.5, also appeals greatly. However, the -134 odds for him to notch at least one point are a bit too rich for my blood. So, let's turn to his shots prop, offering a much more palatable +130 for three or more shots. 

Michkov has hit the Over on this prop in four straight and five of the last seven. His current four-game Over streak is the longest of his first season in the NHL. He didn't register a shot on Dec. 12, the last time these teams met, but I'm banking on the recent momentum he's compiled.  

It also helps that he's facing a Red Wings team that allows the seventh-most shots per game on home ice (30.1) and the fifth-most overall (30.9). A winning $10 bet will profit $13. 

Flyers vs. Red Wings player prop pick

NHL picks  made Wednesday; odds subject to change.

Scott Laughton prop pick: Anytime goal ⭐⭐

Best odds: +500 via Betway | Implied probability: 16.67%

I'm swinging for the fences in backing Scott Laughton to light the lamp at least once. While he's scored in just one game in the last eight, it was an explosive four-goal output in the Flyers' recent 4-1 win over the Red Wings. Also, he's comparatively prolific against Philadelphia, scoring 12 goals in the last 11, including a seven-game goal-scoring streak. 

I'd be more inclined to take Laughton to score an anytime point, but Betway doesn't offer that prop. Laughton has 16 points in the last 11 games against Philly. 

A winning $10 bet would profit $50. 

Prop pick: Under 6.5 goals ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -140 via Betway | Implied probability: 58.33%

While the price is a bit expensive, I like the Under, primarily due to how well the Red Wings have been playing in their own end recently.

Detroit has allowed three goals or fewer in four of the last six contests. You can make it five of six if you exclude the empty-netter they allowed to the Flyers. 

Five of those six games had six or fewer goals.

Plus, Ville Husso is playing his best hockey in recent memory since returning from the AHL. He has allowed three goals or fewer in four straight and has a 2.79 goals-against average and a .903 save percentage in that span. 

Alex Lyon is available Wednesday, but based on how well Husso is playing, I don't see Derek Lalonde switching things up.

Flyers vs. Red Wings odds movement

The moneyline has experienced moderate movement in the hours leading up to puck drop, with the Red Wings shifting from a -135 favorite through Betway to as long as -115. Detroit has now drifted a little further back and sits at -120.

Those wanting to back the underdog Flyers can get them at even money after they were trading at -105 earlier in the afternoon.

Flyers vs. Red Wings live odds & info

• When: Wednesday, Dec. 18
• Puck drop: 7 p.m. ET
• Where: Little Caesars Arena (Detroit)
• How to watch: TNT
• Favorite: Red Wings (-120 via Betway)

Flyers vs. Red Wings injuries

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NHL Best Bets Today: Expert Picks for Saturday, December 21

This article is part of our NHL Picks series.

NHL Best Bets Tonight: Expert NHL Picks for  Saturday, Dec. 21

We have 11 total games on the National Hockey League slate on Saturday. We'll avoid the Los Angeles Kings and Nashville Predators matinee game on NHL Network, as well as the two 4 p.m. ET puck drops. 

Let's focus on the Original Six battle with the Detroit Red Wings visiting the Montreal Canadiens at 7:00 p.m. ET, also on NHL Network. In addition, we'll look to an all-Canadian battle in the Pacific Northwest, as the Ottawa Senators stop in to face the Vancouver Canucks. We'll target those two games and a few parlay opportunities, trying to build that bankroll for the holidays. Let's get started.

Get your holiday spending bankroll topped off with fantastic sportsbook promos like this BetMGM bonus code that offers up to $1,500 in bonus bets. 

Best NHL Picks Tonight

Detroit red wings at montreal canadiens.

The Red Wings (13-15-4) and the Canadiens (13-16-3) tangle at Bell Centre at 7:00 p.m. ET. This Original Six game can be viewed or streamed on the NHL Network.

These teams met in the front end of the home-and-home Friday, with the Canadiens coming away with a 4-3 win in Detroit as moderate underdogs (+137) as the over (6) connected. It was the fourth straight meeting the total went high.

Emil Heineman opened the scoring for the Habs Friday at 7:09 of the first period. It was a seesaw battle in the first period. Patrick Kane answered for the Wings, while Jake Evans notched a short-handed goal at 18:31 to re-take the lead. But, Joe Veleno answered right back just 56 seconds later to send the teams to the room tied 2-2 after 20.

There was no scoring in the second period, but Tyler Motte scored for the home side just 100 seconds into the third, as Detroit had its first lead of the day. It was a short-lived advantage, as Arber Xhekaj leveled the game 3-3 at 8:42 of the third, and Patrik Laine scored on the power play at 12:02 to put a bow on the scoring. That made a winner of Sam Montembeault , who kicked aside 25 of the 28 shots he faced to best Cam Talbot , who had 29 saves with four goals allowed.

In this rematch, Alex Lyon (5-4-0, 2.88 GAA, .903 save percentage, one shutout) is projected to start. Cayden Primeau (2-3-1, 4.70 GAA, .836 save percentage) is likely in net for the home side.

Based on the goaltender matchup, it's a good idea to back the Red Wings to try and make it 2-for-2 for the road side in this home-and-home. We'll also go high on the total based on Friday's result, as well as Primeau's poor GAA and SV% numbers.

• Red Wings ML (-115 at Caesars Sportsbook)
• Over 6.0 Goals (-120 at Caesars Sportsbook)

Ottawa Senators at Vancouver Canucks

The Senators (17-13-2) make their third stop on a nine-game road trip Saturday in Vancouver against the Canucks (16-10-6).

This is an intriguing matchup, as the Canucks have won five in a row in this series since November 8th, 2022. However, Ottawa enters this game red-hot with five straight wins, outscoring the opposition 17-5 since December 1th1 with two shutouts and two overtime victories in that span.

Linus Ullmark (12-7-2, 2.37 GAA, .916 save percentage, three shutouts) has been on one lately. He is expected to be in between the pipes opposite projected starter Thatcher Demko (1-1-2, 3.18 GAA, .887 save percentage).

The 31-year-old Ullmark has allowed just 10 goals in eight starts in December, going 7-0-1 with a 1.23 GAA and sparkling .959 save percentage with a pair of shutouts, including a 30-save 3-0 win on the current trip in Seattle on Tuesday. However, Ullmark was only able to turn aside 17 of the 21 shots he faced in Canada's capital city on November 23 in the first meeting with the Canucks in a 4-3 loss.

Jake DeBrusk was the offensive star that evening for the visitors, as he had two goals and an assist, while Kiefer Sherwood lit the lamp and contributed an assist. For the Sens, Brady Tkachuk had a goal, and he also amassed 21 penalty minutes.

Lately, the Canucks are just 3-3-3 in the past nine games, with the under cashing in each of the past three outings.

It's hard to pick against the Senators right now. Roll with Ottawa on the Moneyline, while confidence is a little higher playing the under.

• Senators ML (+110 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
• Under 5.5 Goals (-110 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

Don't place any bets on your go-to sports betting apps without first seeing what the latest NHL odds are.

NHL Parlays Tonight 

4-leg nhl big parlay (+1215 at fanduel sportsbook).

• Red Wings ML (-122) at Canadiens
• Over 6.5 Goals (+100) - Red Wings at Canadiens
• Under 5.5 Goals (-110) - Senators at Canucks
• Senators ML (+108) at Canucks

2-Leg NHL Moneyline Parlay (+278 at FanDuel Sportsbook)

2-leg nhl totals parlay (+281 at fanduel sportsbook).

NHL Computer Picks - Free Hockey Betting Predictions

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• The total has gone UNDER in 6 of NY Rangers' last 7 games.
• NY Rangers are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games.
• NY Rangers are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games against New Jersey.
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Rangers' last 5 games on the road.
• NY Rangers are 10-5 SU in their last 15 games when playing on the road against New Jersey.
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Rangers' last 6 games against an opponent in the Eastern Conference conference.
• The total has gone UNDER in 9 of New Jersey's last 9 games.
• New Jersey are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games.
• The total has gone UNDER in 7 of New Jersey's last 10 games against NY Rangers.
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Jersey's last 5 games at home.
• New Jersey are 5-10 SU in their last 15 games when playing at home against NY Rangers.
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Jersey's last 5 games against an opponent in the Eastern Conference conference.
• The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Winnipeg's last 16 games.
• Winnipeg are 6-3 SU in their last 9 games.
• Winnipeg are 0-6 SU in their last 6 games against Toronto.
• The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Winnipeg's last 12 games on the road.
• The total has gone OVER in 5 of Winnipeg's last 7 games when playing on the road against Toronto.
• Winnipeg are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games against an opponent in the Eastern Conference conference.
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toronto's last 5 games.
• Toronto are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games.
• The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Toronto's last 14 games at home.
• The total has gone OVER in 5 of Toronto's last 7 games when playing at home against Winnipeg.
• Toronto are 7-0 SU in their last 7 games against an opponent in the Western Conference conference.
• Toronto are 13-3 SU in their last 16 games against an opponent in the Central Division division.
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games.
• Washington are 10-3 SU in their last 13 games.
• Washington are 4-9 SU in their last 13 games against Boston.
• Washington are 10-2 SU in their last 12 games on the road.
• Washington are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games when playing on the road against Boston.
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games played in December.
• The total has gone OVER in 6 of Boston's last 8 games.
• Boston are 7-3 SU in their last 10 games.
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boston's last 5 games against Washington.
• Boston are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games at home.
• Boston are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games when playing at home against Washington.
• The total has gone OVER in 9 of Boston's last 12 games played in December.
• Montreal are 6-3 SU in their last 9 games.
• Montreal are 7-0 SU in their last 7 games against Columbus.
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Montreal's last 5 games on the road.
• Montreal are 4-8 SU in their last 12 games when playing on the road against Columbus.
• The total has gone OVER in 13 of Montreal's last 19 games against an opponent in the Eastern Conference conference.
• Montreal are 4-10 SU in their last 14 games against an opponent in the Metropolitan Division division.
• The total has gone OVER in 11 of Columbus' last 16 games.
• Columbus are 1-6 SU in their last 7 games.
• The total has gone OVER in 8 of Columbus' last 10 games at home.
• Columbus are 8-4 SU in their last 12 games when playing at home against Montreal.
• Columbus are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games against an opponent in the Eastern Conference conference.
• The total has gone OVER in 6 of Columbus' last 8 games against an opponent in the Atlantic Division division.
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of St. Louis' last 5 games.
• St. Louis are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games.
• St. Louis are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games against Detroit.
• St. Louis are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games on the road.
• The total has gone OVER in 5 of St. Louis' last 6 games when playing on the road against Detroit.
• The total has gone UNDER in 6 of St. Louis' last 6 games against an opponent in the Eastern Conference conference.
• Detroit are 3-8 SU in their last 11 games.
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games against St. Louis.
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games at home.
• The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 6 games when playing at home against St. Louis.
• Detroit are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games against an opponent in the Western Conference conference.
• Detroit are 3-6 SU in their last 9 games against an opponent in the Central Division division.
• Tampa Bay are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games.
• Tampa Bay are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games against Florida.
• Tampa Bay are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games on the road.
• Tampa Bay are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing on the road against Florida.
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games against an opponent in the Eastern Conference conference.
• The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games against an opponent in the Atlantic Division division.
• The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Florida's last 8 games.
• Florida are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games.
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Florida's last 5 games at home.
• Florida are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay.
• Florida are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games against an opponent in the Eastern Conference conference.
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Florida's last 5 games against an opponent in the Atlantic Division division.
• The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 9 games.
• Philadelphia are 3-6 SU in their last 9 games.
• Philadelphia are 3-9 SU in their last 12 games against Pittsburgh.
• The total has gone OVER in 10 of Philadelphia's last 15 games on the road.
• Philadelphia are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh.
• The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games against an opponent in the Eastern Conference conference.
• Pittsburgh are 8-4 SU in their last 12 games.
• The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 8 games against Philadelphia.
• The total has gone OVER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games at home.
• Pittsburgh are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing at home against Philadelphia.
• The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Pittsburgh's last 15 games against an opponent in the Eastern Conference conference.
• Pittsburgh are 1-8 SU in their last 9 games against an opponent in the Metropolitan Division division.
• Buffalo are 0-10 SU in their last 10 games.
• Buffalo are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games on the road.
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Islanders.
• Buffalo are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games against an opponent in the Eastern Conference conference.
• The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games played on a Monday.
• NY Islanders are 7-13 SU in their last 20 games.
• The total has gone UNDER in 7 of NY Islanders' last 8 games against Buffalo.
• The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Islanders' last 7 games at home.
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Islanders' last 5 games when playing at home against Buffalo.
• NY Islanders are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games against an opponent in the Eastern Conference conference.
• NY Islanders are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games when playing as the favourite.
• The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Chicago's last 20 games.
• Chicago are 6-12 SU in their last 18 games.
• Chicago are 1-13 SU in their last 14 games against Minnesota.
• Chicago are 1-9 SU in their last 10 games on the road.
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing on the road against Minnesota.
• Chicago are 2-6 SU in their last 8 games against an opponent in the Western Conference conference.
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games.
• Minnesota are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games.
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 5 games against Chicago.
• The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Minnesota's last 11 games at home.
• The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing at home against Chicago.
• Minnesota are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games against an opponent in the Western Conference conference.
• The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Carolina's last 6 games.
• Carolina are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games.
• Carolina are 13-7 SU in their last 20 games against Nashville.
• Carolina are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games on the road.
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 6 games when playing on the road against Nashville.
• Carolina are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games against an opponent in the Western Conference conference.
• The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Nashville's last 20 games.
• Nashville are 3-10 SU in their last 13 games.
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Nashville's last 5 games against Carolina.
• The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Nashville's last 9 games at home.
• The total has gone OVER in 4 of Nashville's last 6 games when playing at home against Carolina.
• Nashville are 1-10 SU in their last 11 games against an opponent in the Eastern Conference conference.
• San Jose are 1-7 SU in their last 8 games.
• San Jose are 1-13 SU in their last 14 games against Vancouver.
• San Jose are 5-15 SU in their last 20 games on the road.
• San Jose are 0-7 SU in their last 7 games when playing on the road against Vancouver.
• The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Jose's last 8 games against an opponent in the Western Conference conference.
• The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Jose's last 6 games played on a Monday.
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Vancouver's last 6 games.
• Vancouver are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games.
• The total has gone OVER in 11 of Vancouver's last 13 games against San Jose.
• Vancouver are 6-13 SU in their last 19 games at home.
• Vancouver are 7-0 SU in their last 7 games when playing at home against San Jose.
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Vancouver's last 5 games against an opponent in the Western Conference conference.
• The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Dallas' last 10 games.
• Dallas are 8-0 SU in their last 8 games against Utah.
• Dallas are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games on the road.
• Dallas are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games when playing on the road against Utah.
• The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Dallas' last 7 games against an opponent in the Western Conference conference.
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas' last 5 games against an opponent in the Central Division division.
• Utah are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games.
• Utah are 1-6 SU in their last 7 games at home.
• Utah are 1-6 SU in their last 7 games when playing at home against Dallas.
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Utah's last 5 games against an opponent in the Central Division division.
• The total has gone OVER in 7 of Utah's last 9 games played on a Monday.
• Anaheim are 3-6 SU in their last 9 games.
• Anaheim are 5-13 SU in their last 18 games against Vegas.
• Anaheim are 2-13 SU in their last 15 games when playing on the road against Vegas.
• The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Anaheim's last 11 games against an opponent in the Western Conference conference.
• The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Anaheim's last 12 games against an opponent in the Pacific Division division.
• Anaheim are 5-10 SU in their last 15 games played in December.
• The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Vegas' last 9 games.
• Vegas are 7-1 SU in their last 8 games.
• The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Vegas' last 5 games against Anaheim.
• Vegas are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games at home.
• Vegas are 13-2 SU in their last 15 games when playing at home against Anaheim.
• The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Vegas' last 11 games against an opponent in the Western Conference conference.

We've combined statistical analysis and machine learning to make these computer picks. The table above shows you how the computer has done in its last 100 picks against the moneyline, spread (puckline), and the total with $100 units. 

Seeing where the computer has had success (or has failed) can give you some insight into where the betting value might lie going forward.

How to Use the NHL Computer Picks Table

Use our computer picks as the starting point in your handicapping journey. Our computer analyzes every stat in our database and chooses the bet that has the most likely outcome. Now use our other tools to do your own research and see if that research agrees or disagrees with the computer.

Odds Shark's Free Computer Picks

An NHL moneyline bet is simple – all you need to do is pick a winner. Whether that’s in regulation or overtime, they don't ask how but how many, right?

As with all moneyline odds, the team with the minus (-) is the favorite, while the side with the plus (+) is the underdog.

Betting $100 on Edmonton at -130 would net you $176 in winnings (if they win the game), $76 of profit plus your initial $100 wager. Conversely, if you bet on Florida and they win you get $210 -- $110 in profit plus your initial $100 bet.

Spread (Puckline)

The puckline is the NHL's version of the spread, where each team is given a certain amount of goals to either win/lose by. Unlike the NFL or the NBA , the NHL spread doesn't typically change from 1.5 for each side. The spread is designed to make betting on the favorite more enticing. 

The favorite (Edmonton at -1.5) would need to win by at least two goals for the bet to cash. If Edmonton wins by two or more goals - in other words "covers the bet" - you'd get $191 in winnings instead of $176 by taking them on the moneyline.

There are two ways for the underdog (Florida at +1.5) to "cover" a +1.5 puckline bet. They can lose by a single goal or win outright to cash! The odds are shorter but you've got options on this bet. 

Totals (OVER/UNDER)

With a total bet, you're wagering on the total number of goals scored by both teams. You aren't backing any single side to win.

Sportsbooks will set a line for the game, in this case, it's 5.5 goals. Your job is to figure out if Edmonton and Florida will score more or less than 5.5 goals (not counting the shootout). If you see a line that's an even number, like 6.0, those bets can end in a push where your wager is refunded if the game ends at exactly six goals.

More NHL Picks & Betting Tools

You know what the moneyline, spread (puckline) and total bets are, you're ready to start betting on NHL hockey. But before you just start placing bets with your gut, make sure to check out our betting tools and betting guides .

They can guide you with more than just moneyline, spread and total bets but they can help you find value in the futures and player props markets as well. 

Odds Shark's NHL Betting Resources

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3 NHL Best Bets and Predictions for Saturday 12/21/24

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Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

For additional NHL insights, check out FanDuel Research's daily NHL projections , powered by numberFire.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com . Lineup notes come from Daily Faceoff .

NHL Betting Picks Today

Get inside the crease and access who is starting in tonight’s NHL matchups and save projections with SportsGrid’s Starting Goalies Page .

New York Islanders vs. Toronto Maple Leafs

Over 5.5 (-128).

More odds in Sportsbook

Odds/lines subject to change

The Toronto Maple Leafs are skating on the second night of a back-to-back on Saturday as they host the New York Islanders in an inter-divisional showdown. Toronto has been trending in a positive direction lately, and that trend should hold steady at Scotiabank Arena.

Toronto’s offensive production is through the roof. The Atlantic Division leaders have tallied 71 high-danger chances over their past five games, equalling 14.2 per contest. Likewise, scoring chances have been flowing naturally. Toronto has eclipsed 24 in all but one of those contests for a robust average of 27.0 per game.

The Islanders will need to be at their best offensively if they hope to keep pace with their hosts on Saturday night. Thankfully, that’s been the case recently. The Isles have totaled 30 high-danger and 54 scoring opportunities over their previous couple of games but have just three goals to show for their efforts. Expect a sharp increase in scoring as output balances with production.

While Toronto handled their goaltending situation effectively, we’re still forecasting a high-scoring affair in the Six. The Leafs and Islanders have ample production metrics, which should translate into an over on Saturday night.

Buffalo Sabres vs. Boston Bruins

Sabres moneyline (+150).

Tonight’s Atlantic Division tilt between the Buffalo Sabres and Boston Bruins is shaping up as a classic flat spot for the hosts. The Bruins return home after a five-game road trip in which they went 2-2-1. Granted, the Sabres are playing on consecutive nights. Still, we’re betting that tonight is the night their infamous losing streak comes to an end.

Buffalo has lost 12 straight. A closed-door meeting earlier in the week failed to spark the team into action. Nevertheless, there are some promising metrics in their analytics profile. First, the Sabres have been one of the best production teams over the past few weeks. They have averaged 10.4 high-danger chances per game over the past nine, eclipsing double-digits in six of those contests.

Second, there’s a substantive rift forming between expected and actual outcomes. While their 48.2% expected goals-for rating remains slightly underwhelming, the Sabres are operating nearly eight points below that. Their actual goals-for rating of 40.8% and PDO of 0.974 imply that the Sabres are due for a reversal of fortune, a progression we are anticipating against the Bruins.

Scheduling-wise, this looks like a troublesome spot for the B’s as they settle back into the comforts of home after an extended road trip. As such, there’s an edge in backing the Sabres to pull off the massive upset and end their 12-game skid.

Ottawa Senators vs. Vancouver Canucks

Canucks moneyline (-130).

It may be separated by the holiday freeze, but the Ottawa Senators are in the midst of playing nine straight games away from home. Their next stop takes them to the lower mainland, where the Vancouver Canucks await them. The Sens have enjoyed some success early in their road trip, but their metrics are eroding, putting them at a disadvantage in this one.

Ottawa has struggled to compete on both ends of the ice lately. They’ve given up at least 10 high-danger chances in three of four while out-chancing their opponents just once over that stretch. Predictably, that correlates with an ineffective expected goals-for rating. The Senators have been outplayed in all but one of those contests while producing a lackluster 44.8% eGF.

Conversely, the 'Nucks are just starting to get their metrics in order. Vancouver has outplayed its opponents in two of three, a stretch that includes only one win. After two heartbreaking losses, the Canucks are poised for a bounce-back effort against an analytically inferior Sens squad.

The Canucks’ chances of claiming victory against the Sens are greater than the betting line implies. On that basis, our most pronounced edge comes in backing the hosts as short home favorites.

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Today's NHL Picks

The Habs have played some better hockey of late, more or less dating back to Patrik Laine's debut — a 9-2 loss to the Penguins notwithstanding — and are rolling on a three-game winning streak as they hit Columbus on Monday. The Blue Jackets have had a marginally better season than the Habs on the whole, but are hitting the skids at 2-5-3 in their last 10. Beyond that, Columbus has one of the worst penalty-kill percentages at 73.53%, which has been Montreal's bread and butter lately with Laine and Lane Hutson doing a ton of damage with the man advantage.

Jason Wilson - Pick Made 12 hrs, 14 min ago.

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